The Football Analytics Lab
27 seasons of real NFL data. 169,682 stat lines. 17,369 players. 7,276 games. Here's what the numbers actually say.
From the Lab
Real findings from our latest analysis run
Josh Allen Is the Pressure Test Every Fantasy QB Has to Pass
ScrimmageLab's 2022-2024 pressure profile gives Josh Allen a 96.0 resilience score — first among 57 qualifying quarterbacks. The fantasy translation: EPA drops 0.355 under pressure but Allen still scrambles his way back. The QB1 ceiling stays intact.
Pittsburgh Owns the Draft ROI Board, But the Edge Is Mostly Price
The 2005-2021 draft ROI file puts Pittsburgh first at 0.93 fantasy-points per capital-dollar and Cleveland last at 0.29 — a 3.2x gap. The real lesson is how quickly the cost curve falls: late picks return 32x the fantasy points per dollar of round-1 picks.
The 2007 Patriots Are Still the Model's Team to Beat
Our era-adjusted team model ranks the 2007 Patriots #1 among 861 team-seasons from 1999-2025 with an 89.2 power index — 5.5 points clear of #2 (2019 Ravens). The composite weights 50% margin, 30% win rate, 20% schedule strength.
The NFL Athlete Is Evolving: 25 Years of Combine Data Prove It
The average skill-position 40 time dropped from 4.62 to 4.48 over 25 years while average weight increased. We ran 5,466 combine athletes through a gradient-boost model and found 19.0% R² between combine metrics and rookie fantasy production.
Conventional Wisdom vs. the Data
"The contract year bump is real"
We tested 1,056 contract years. Players declined 3.6% on average (p=0.003).
"Clutch players win games"
Year-over-year autocorrelation: 0.064. That's 0.4% of variance. The most "clutch" players are Brock Osweiler and Geno Smith.
What is ScrimmageLab?
A football data science platform built on 27 seasons of real NFL data. We run 500+ machine learning models, statistical analyses, and trend detection across 169,682 player-game stat lines — then publish what we find. Rankings and fantasy tools are included, but this is a research lab first.
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