18 articles in this category
Achane signed 4yr/$68M to lock the Miami bell-cow workload. But the Dolphins also project to 4.5 wins — the lowest in the league. Game scripts will fight the carries.
The Setup: Why October Wind Is the Quiet Slate-Killer Most fantasy managers think wind is a December problem. The data says October is where the wind cliff actually starts, and the early-season fade l...
The old two-model article got the verdict backward. ScrimmageLab's empty-calories file gives Jonathan Taylor a 22.9 score, below the RB average of 27.7, while the fatigue file still flags a real workload risk.
ScrimmageLab's 2025 cumulative fatigue file flags a running back efficiency dip around 213 carries. The rewrite keeps the signal, drops fake certainty, and names the backs who need context checks.
ScrimmageLab's 2022-2024 pressure profile gives Josh Allen a 96.0 resilience score, first among 57 qualifying quarterbacks, but the fantasy lesson is about floor more than mythology.
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ScrimmageLab tested 1090 qualifying players against top-10 and bottom-10 defenses and found wide receivers had the smallest average matchup gap at 24.4%.
ScrimmageLab's era-adjusted team model ranks the 2007 Patriots No. 1 among 861 team-seasons from 1999-2025, with an 89.2 power index and a 19.7-point average margin.
ScrimmageLab decomposed 25,140 player-game observations from 2020-2025. Within-player weekly swings dominate total variance, and residual noise explains 90.6-98.0% of the modeled week-to-week component by position.
ScrimmageLab analyzed 27,243 red-zone plays from 2020-2024. The 1-yard line scored at 54.3%; the 2-yard line scored at 30.6%. That one-yard gap changes fantasy touchdown math.
Across every offensive position, year 2 produces the biggest PPR jump -- not year 3. The third-year breakout is fantasy gospel that the data says is mostly wrong.
An 8,320 player-season study reveals that RB rush TDs cliff at age 22, QB stats never cliff at all, and WR production peaks at 31 -- not 26 like everyone assumes.
Across 160 team-seasons, pass blocking grade correlates with wins at r=0.69 (R-squared=0.478) versus r=0.48 (R-squared=0.233) for run blocking. Buffalo leads the five-year pass blocking average at 84.4, Baltimore leads run blocking at 86.4.
In ScrimmageLab's 2015-2025 year-over-year sample, WR target share autocorrelates at 0.649 while touchdown rate fails the stability test. Volume is the signal; TDs are the smoke.
ScrimmageLab's 2022-2024 coach-DNA file covers all 32 teams and shows Cincinnati at 61.3% early-down passing in close games, Detroit at 32.5% on fourth downs, and Philadelphia at 89.3% shotgun rate. Treat style as a fantasy shortcut, not a guarantee.
ScrimmageLab's injury-replacement file covers 524 events since 2018. Replacements averaged useful boosts, but only 21.2% cleared the fantasy-viable line.
ScrimmageLab's contract-year file found 1057 paired seasons and a -0.38 PPG contract-year change, not a breakout bump. The real draft tax is paying for a story the data does not support.
The average skill-position 40 time dropped from 4.62 to 4.48 over 25 years while average weight increased. The modern NFL athlete is bigger AND faster.
The contract year bump is a myth. Players who had peak seasons typically decline the following year regardless of contract status.