stat deep dive
Jonathan Taylor Is a Workload Problem, Not Empty Calories
The old two-model article got the verdict backward. ScrimmageLab's empty-calories file gives Jonathan Taylor a 22.9 score, below the RB average of 27.7, while the fatigue file still flags a real workload risk.
ScrimmageLab
May 4, 2026
stat deep dive
The 213-Carry Cliff Is a Warning Light for Fantasy Running Backs
ScrimmageLab's 2025 cumulative fatigue file flags a running back efficiency dip around 213 carries. The rewrite keeps the signal, drops fake certainty, and names the backs who need context checks.
ScrimmageLab
May 4, 2026
stat deep dive
Josh Allen Is the Pressure Test Every Fantasy QB Has to Pass
ScrimmageLab's 2022-2024 pressure profile gives Josh Allen a 96.0 resilience score, first among 57 qualifying quarterbacks, but the fantasy lesson is about floor more than mythology.
ScrimmageLab
May 4, 2026
draft strategy
Pittsburgh Owns the Draft ROI Board, But the Edge Is Mostly Price
ScrimmageLab's 2005-2021 draft ROI file puts Pittsburgh first at 0.93 and Cleveland last at 0.29, but the real lesson is how quickly the cost curve punishes missed premium picks.
ScrimmageLab
May 4, 2026
stat deep dive
The Matchup-Proof Player List Is Really a Wide Receiver Story
ScrimmageLab tested 1090 qualifying players against top-10 and bottom-10 defenses and found wide receivers had the smallest average matchup gap at 24.4%.
ScrimmageLab
May 4, 2026
dynasty deep dive
Year 2 Is the Contract Trap for Fantasy Skill Players
ScrimmageLab matched 4938 multi-year NFL contracts to fantasy scoring and found Year 2 drops for RBs, WRs, and TEs, while QBs move differently.
ScrimmageLab
May 4, 2026
stat deep dive
The 2007 Patriots Are Still the Model's Team to Beat
ScrimmageLab's era-adjusted team model ranks the 2007 Patriots No. 1 among 861 team-seasons from 1999-2025, with an 89.2 power index and a 19.7-point average margin.
ScrimmageLab
May 4, 2026
stat deep dive
Fantasy Football Is Noisier Than Your Start-Sit Confidence
ScrimmageLab decomposed 25,140 player-game observations from 2020-2025. Within-player weekly swings dominate total variance, and residual noise explains 90.6-98.0% of the modeled week-to-week component by position.
ScrimmageLab
May 4, 2026
stat deep dive
The 1-Yard Line and 2-Yard Line Are Not the Same Sport
ScrimmageLab analyzed 27,243 red-zone plays from 2020-2024. The 1-yard line scored at 54.3%; the 2-yard line scored at 30.6%. That one-yard gap changes fantasy touchdown math.
ScrimmageLab
May 4, 2026
stat deep dive
The Third-Year Breakout Is a Lie: Year 2 Has the Biggest Jump at Every Position
Across every offensive position, year 2 produces the biggest PPR jump -- not year 3. The third-year breakout is fantasy gospel that the data says is mostly wrong.
ScrimmageLab
Apr 17, 2026
stat deep dive
The Aging Cliff Is Real -- But It Hits Different Stats at Different Ages
An 8,320 player-season study reveals that RB rush TDs cliff at age 22, QB stats never cliff at all, and WR production peaks at 31 -- not 26 like everyone assumes.
ScrimmageLab
Apr 17, 2026
stat deep dive
Pass Blocking Is Twice as Important as Run Blocking
Across 160 team-seasons, pass blocking grade correlates with wins at r=0.69 (R-squared=0.478) versus r=0.48 (R-squared=0.233) for run blocking. Buffalo leads the five-year pass blocking average at 84.4, Baltimore leads run blocking at 86.4.
ScrimmageLab
Apr 17, 2026
stat deep dive
The NFL Athlete Is Evolving: 25 Years of Combine Data Prove It
The average skill-position 40 time dropped from 4.62 to 4.48 over 25 years while average weight increased. The modern NFL athlete is bigger AND faster.
ScrimmageLab
Apr 16, 2026
stat deep dive
The Contract Year Bump Doesn't Exist. Players Actually Get Worse.
The contract year bump is a myth. Players who had peak seasons typically decline the following year regardless of contract status.
ScrimmageLab
Apr 16, 2026
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