stat deep dive
The 1-Yard Line and 2-Yard Line Are Not the Same Sport
ScrimmageLab analyzed 27,243 red-zone plays from 2020-2024. The 1-yard line scored at 54.3%; the 2-yard line scored at 30.6%. That one-yard gap changes fantasy touchdown math.
ScrimmageLab
May 4, 2026
stat deep dive
Trust Target Share, Not Touchdown Smoke
In ScrimmageLab's 2015-2025 year-over-year sample, WR target share autocorrelates at 0.649 while touchdown rate fails the stability test. Volume is the signal; TDs are the smoke.
ScrimmageLab
Apr 17, 2026
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