draft strategy
The WR Touchdown Bounce-Back Bets Hiding in Plain Sight
Touchdowns are the easiest stat to overreact to and the hardest one to draft cleanly. One receiver scores four times and looks boring. Another scores eight times on a thinner role and suddenly gets treated like the better bet. That is how fantasy managers end…
ScrimmageLab
Jul 8, 2026
stat deep dive
The 1-Yard Line and 2-Yard Line Are Not the Same Sport
ScrimmageLab analyzed 27,243 red-zone plays from 2020-2024. The 1-yard line scored at 54.3%; the 2-yard line scored at 30.6%. That one-yard gap changes fantasy touchdown math.
ScrimmageLab
May 4, 2026
stat deep dive
Trust Target Share, Not Touchdown Smoke
In ScrimmageLab's 2015-2025 year-over-year sample, WR target share autocorrelates at 0.649 while touchdown rate fails the stability test. Volume is the signal; TDs are the smoke.
ScrimmageLab
Apr 17, 2026
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