Predictive Metrics Leaderboards
The metrics with proven year-over-year predictive correlation to next-year fantasy points.
Bible Ch01/Ch03 Diamonds: First-Read Target Share (YoY r=0.78), MTF/touch (r=0.43), and YACO/Att (r=0.44) are the three strongest single-stat predictors of next-year fantasy points. We compute open-source proxies — PFF, SIS, and Fantasy Points have proprietary versions with cleaner inputs (route charting, contact tracking, read-progression tagging). The relative ordering generally holds; the absolute numbers run lower than PFF YPRR because our routes denominator is a snap-times-team-pass-rate estimate rather than per-route charting.
See the badge next to each metric below for its YoY predictive r and the proxy_notes on every payload for the formula and caveats.